Evaluation and projected changes of precipitation statistics in convection-permitting WRF climate simulations over Central Europe

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Title:Main Title: Evaluation and projected changes of precipitation statistics in convection-permitting WRF climate simulations over Central Europe
Description:Abstract: We perform simulations with the WRF regional climate model at 12 and 3 km grid resolution for the current and future climates over Central Europe and evaluate their added value with a focus on the daily cycle and frequency distribution of rainfall and the relation between extreme precipitation and air temperature. First, a 9 year period of ERA-Interim driven simulations is evaluated against observations; then global climate model runs (MPI-ESM-LR RCP4.5 scenario) are down- scaled and analyzed for three 12-year periods: a control, a mid-of-century and an end-of-century projection. The higher resolution simulations reproduce both the diurnal cycle and the hourly intensity distribution of precipitation more realisti- cally compared to the 12 km simulation. Moreover, the observed increase of the temperature–extreme precipitation scaling from the Clausius–Clapeyron (C–C) scaling rate of ~ 7% K−1 to a super-adiabatic scaling rate for temperatures above 11 °C is reproduced only by the 3 km simulation. The drop of the scaling rates at high temperatures under moisture limited condi- tions differs between sub-regions. For both future scenario time spans both simulations suggest a slight decrease in mean summer precipitation and an increase in hourly heavy and extreme precipitation. This increase is stronger in the 3 km runs. Temperature–extreme precipitation scaling curves in the future climate are projected to shift along the 7% K−1 trajectory to higher peak extreme precipitation values at higher temperatures. The curves keep their typical shape of C–C scaling followed by super-adiabatic scaling and a drop-off at higher temperatures due to moisture limitation.
Identifier:10.1007/s00382-018-4147-x (DOI)
Responsible Party
Creators:Sebastian Knist (Author), Klaus Goergen (Author), Clemens Simmer (Author)
Publisher:Meteorological Institute, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany
Publication Year:2018
Topic
TR32 Topic:Atmosphere
Related Subproject:C4
Subject:Keyword: Modelling
File Details
Filename:Knist_et_al_2018_Climate_Dynamics.pdf
Data Type:Text - Article
File Size:14.9 MB
Date:Accepted: 15.02.2018
Mime Type:application/pdf
Data Format:PDF
Language:English
Status:Completed
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Download Permission:Free
General Access and Use Conditions:According to the TR32DB data policy agreement.
Access Limitations:According to the TR32DB data policy agreement.
Licence:[TR32DB] Data policy agreement
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Publication Status:Published
Review Status:Not peer reviewed
Publication Type:Article
Article Type:Journal
Source:Climate Dynamics
Source Website:https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4147-x
Issue:Advances in Convection-Permitting Climate Modeling
Number of Pages: ( - )
Metadata Details
Metadata Creator:Sebastian Knist
Metadata Created:08.03.2018
Metadata Last Updated:08.03.2018
Subproject:C4
Funding Phase:3
Metadata Language:English
Metadata Version:V50
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